Tomorrow, the Largest Bitcoin Options Expiration in History Will Take Place – Here’s What to Expect from the Major Event

All eyes in the cryptocurrency markets are on tomorrow’s Bitcoin options expiry, the largest in history.

Data analyst Murphy noted that approximately $23.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options will expire on the same day, a process that could significantly increase short-term volatility in the BTC price.

According to Murphy, as market makers undo their hedge positions during the option’s expiration, the temporary support and resistance levels created by the option structure may lose their effectiveness. This could pave the way for sharp and rapid price movements in Bitcoin until all market participants reposition themselves and a new funding structure is established.

The analysis argued that if the Bitcoin price were to retreat to its previous low point, namely the $80,000–$82,000 range, this could create a speculative opportunity for a “short-term rebound.” Murphy emphasized that the sharp volatility seen during periods of liquidity shortages does not always signify the beginning of a new crash.

On the other hand, it was noted that signals of a “bullish divergence” have begun to emerge in short timeframes. This signal appears when the rate of price decline is stronger than the rate of capital outflow, and it points to the possibility of a correction or temporary recovery in a downtrend.

The “Price and Capital Inflow Gradient” indicator used measures the relative change between Bitcoin price momentum and actual capital flows. In past cycles, rapid price declines despite slowing capital outflows have frequently resulted in rebound rallies.

The analysis noted that following four separate bullish divergence signals seen in 2021–2022 and 2024–2025, Bitcoin experienced recoveries of varying scales and, in some cases, trend reversals. However, given that the overall market sentiment is still in the “recovery from a bear market” phase, a limited and short-term upside scenario is considered more likely this time.

*This is not investment advice.