Amid ongoing market fluctuations, Bitcoin (BTC) has shed 2% of its gains in the last 24 hours. The current volatility likely prompted Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer (CIO), to drop a bold opinion on what truly matters with the flagship cryptocurrency asset.
Bitwise CIO on Bitcoin market cycles
In a post on X, Hougan dismissed the emphasis placed on Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and the halving event. He noted that the phenomenon was not the most important pattern in Bitcoin when it comes to long-term trends.
According to Hougan, the most important pattern is “up and to the right.” This suggests that rather than analysts and market participants preoccupying themselves with Bitcoin’s exact cycles, they need to focus on the long-term gains in price.
For clarity, most analysts in the crypto space predict the possible top and bottom prices of BTC based on the four-year cycle. Notably, the first year after halving is considered a bullish one, and market participants expect the coin to climb in price.
The four-year cycle is not the most important pattern in bitcoin. The most important pattern is “up and to the right.”
— Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) August 1, 2025
In the second year, Bitcoin’s price is expected to reach peak values and possibly hit an all-time high (ATH). In year three, traders anticipate a bear market crash just before the fourth year, when investors start accumulating before the next halving.
Interestingly, these scenarios have played out in 2013, 2017 and 2021. However, Hougan believes that as the asset continues to mature, holders of BTC should focus on broader adoption that could lead to the long-term value addition of the leading crypto asset.
Market eyes $115K support as key Bitcoin level
As of press time, Bitcoin is exchanging at $115,457.58, representing a 2.22% decline in the last 24 hours. The coin has been very volatile, oscillating between a low of $114,061.73 and an intraday peak of $118,868.42.
The crypto market is reacting to fears of trade tariff tensions, which could trigger prolonged U.S. inflation on the broader financial market. There is also the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates impacting Bitcoin.
Market participants are keenly observing the $115,000 support for BTC and hope ecosystem bulls can defend it.