CryptoQuant: LTH Stability vs. STH Aggression Driving Bitcoin Market Volatility
The journey of the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap toward new peaks is being shaped by a hidden conflict among its biggest holders.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán, there’s a fundamental divide in Bitcoin (BTC) whale behavior that is creating a market pulled between steadfast conviction and short-term speculation.
The Whale Divide: Calm Accumulation vs. Aggressive Trading
In his latest assessment, Alemán noted that not all Bitcoin whales operate with the same strategy.
The market’s largest holders, those with over 1,000 BTC, are split into two distinct groups with opposing influences on price action. On one hand are long-term holder (LTH) whales, who have kept their Bitcoin for more than 155 days, and are currently in possession of about 3.72 million BTC acquired at an average price of only $41,887. According to the expert, this group’s behavior is typically calm, characterized by strategic accumulation with little reaction to moderate price declines.
On the other hand, short-term holder (STH) whales have around 1.07 million BTC bought at a much higher average cost of $111,299. This cohort, often made up of institutions and other newcomers to the market, usually displays more aggressive trading patterns, frequently repositioning during pullbacks to lower their average costs, injecting considerable short-term volatility into the market in the process.
This difference in behavior is creating a structural tension beneath Bitcoin’s price movements.
“The distinction between LTH and STH Whales is key because their different behaviors directly impact market volatility,” wrote Alemán. “When STH Whales become more active, their higher cost basis often translates into sharper short-term moves. In contrast, the steady accumulation of LTH Whales provides stability and price support.”
The performance is also occurring against a complex backdrop. As reported previously by CryptoQuant, there has been a sharp drop in Taker Buy Volume across major exchanges like Binance, indicating weakening demand for the OG cryptocurrency from aggressive buyers. Historically, the pattern has preceded extended consolidation or notable pullbacks.
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Still, the blockchain’s fundamental health appears solid. Data from the tail-end of September confirmed Bitcoin’s hashrate reached a record 1.441 zettahashes per second, viewed by observers as a sign of strong miner confidence and increased network security.
Market Outlook Hinges on Demand and Momentum
Bitcoin’s immediate future appears to hinge on which group of heavyweight investors will gain the upper hand and whether broader market demand can rebound.
While the stability offered by LTH whales, with their low cost basis, provides a solid foundation of price support, the constant activity of STH whales, who are more sensitive to price swings due to their higher entry points, makes sharp short-term moves more likely.
In the meantime, traders will be watching key technical levels. A clean break above the $115,000 resistance could confirm the bullish technical setup and potentially trigger a new push upwards. However, the presence of a CME futures gap near $110,000, a level the price has tended to revisit, means there is still the possibility of a short-term dip.