US CPI Data Finally Drops Today: Will Bitcoin Relive Its Painful Past?

The United States government shutdown continues in full force, now in its 24th day. It became the second-longest in US history and is closing down the record of 35 days set during Trump’s first term in office in 2019. According to current data, about two million workers’ payments have been suspended, while 900,000 have been furloughed.

In addition, numerous government-related sectors have fallen behind on certain deadlines, such as the release of the Consumer Price Index data for the previous month, which is crucial in determining the Fed’s next move. After a major delay of over a week, the CPI numbers for September are scheduled to be released later today, which is expected to impact BTC as it has done countless times in the past. The question is, will the price slip from the previous announcement repeat?

Higher Than Expected?

The overall expectations in Washington are that consumer prices increased for a second consecutive month in September, which, experts believe, is related to tariff-sensitive goods.

“The government shutdown may have altered the September CPI release date, but it hasn’t changed the stubborn state of inflation. Beneath the surface, we expect goods inflation to stay elevated due to continued tariff pass-through, while an easing in primary shelter costs should help cool services inflation,” commented Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo.

In a statement to CryptoPotato, Bitfinex Analysts commented:

“We will be watching core CPI and the services ex housing split first because a monthly beat above roughly 0.35 percent or a core print drifting above 3.2 percent year on year will lift real yields, strengthen the dollar and cool risk appetite, while a softer print below about 2.8 percent year on year or a weaker monthly pace will revive rate cut expectations and spark a risk on move.”

Despite the substantial risk of rising inflation, the US Federal Reserve is still expected to lower the key interest rate later this month and possibly again in December.

Will BTC Dump Again?

As reported over a month ago, BTC’s price slipped immediately after the release of the US CPI data for August, which was rather surprising given that the numbers matched expectations. As such, many anticipate bitcoin heading south if September data comes in higher than expected.

$BTC bounced back from the $106,00-$107,000 support zone again.

Trump hinted towards a big deal with China, which is a good thing.

Also, CPI is coming tomorrow, and a lower-than-expected print will be bullish for Bitcoin.

If CPI comes higher than expected, expect more pain… pic.twitter.com/G0HeD763dz

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 23, 2025

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However, the cryptocurrency has proven in the past that it often moves in the opposite direction of what people expect. Nevertheless, volatility is most likely in BTC’s cards for the day due to the significance of the CPI numbers and the scheduled Fed meeting next week.